One year after the abrogation of article 370. Was it worth it? How has Kashmir changed

Article 370 had given special status to Jammu and Kashmir to have a separate constitution, and Article 35A reserved land for locals. These articles were abrogated on 5th August 2019.

NDA’s stand on Kashmir:

Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was formed, they have always wanted to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A. The BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formed the government for 6 years (1 year and then another 5 years) between 1998 and 2004 under the prime ministership of BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee. However, this government was a coalition government and most of BJP’s allies (all of them except Shiv Sena) were against the abrogation of Article 370 (and 35A).

In the Vajpayee government, the minister of state (MoS) for external affairs spoke about certain problems in Kashmir.

In an interview with Kenyan weekly on 5th November 2001, he said:

Pakistan must stop sponsoring cross-border terrorism. Pakistan must accept that Kashmir is and has always been a part of India. The sooner it realises this, the better. In order to resolve the dispute, comprehensive dialogue is the only way forward. But this is difficult as long as Pakistan continues to support violence in Jammu and Kashmir.

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On 15th December the same year Ms Barkha Dutt of NDTV interviewed him. During the interview, he said:

We would have to make a case to the United Nations taking all the evidence that we have about Pakistan's role in aiding and abetting terrorism. [W]hen Pakistan says that they are giving political, emotional and moral support to terrorism that is very much a passive support. But it also says that terrorism cannot be disguised as a struggle for freedom and no cause can justify terrorist violence. So, no matter what Pakistan says that is happening in Jammu and Kashmir or the rest of India, we have a case that we can make.

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BJP lost the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, and the Congress led UPA formed the government. They ruled for 10 years. BJP blamed article 370 for the cause of problems in Kashmir. They claimed that if it was abolished, terrorism could be extinguished.

Abrogating article 370:

BJP led NDA came to power in 2014 under the leadership of Narendra Modi. In 2019, they came to power again with a bigger majority. On 5th August, 3 months after assuming office, the government revoked Articles 370 and 35A. They divided the state into two: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. On top of that, they revoked their statehood and made them union territories.

How does the abrogation compare with previous years?

Terrorism has gone down compared to the previous 12 months. However, there is more to be looked into.

Before the abrogation, the government had prepared a lot. The abrogation would cause an outbreak among many Kashmiris, so the government had closed schools, made many barbed wire fences, deployed many army personnel and arrested many people before the abrogation. As can be seen, the number of deaths had reduced in July itself. That shows that the drop in terrorism is in no way because of the abrogation. It is because of the political lockdown. After the abrogation, they deployed even more soldiers. By August, there were already 10,000 CAPF troops. In the beginning of August, they deployed another 28,000 in Kashmir. If they had not been going to abrogate article 370, they wouldn't have needed to deploy so many of them.

The number of deaths is relatively small compared to the last few years. However, it is only small compared to other years of Modi rule.

By the end of the Manmohan Singh-II regime, terrorism had reduced dramatically. It went up again as Modi came to power.

Congress claims that their governments are stronger than BJP’s with respect to defence. The real explanation is that the people of Kashmir felt less connected with the government when BJP came to power. The government's plan to abrogate article 370, and the general attitude towards the Kashmiris was provocative.

After the abrogation top political leaders were detained. Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah from National Conference; Mehbooba Mufti from Peoples' Democratic Party; and Shah Faesal from Jammu Kashmir People’s Movement were all put behind bars. These leaders have a relatively close relationship with the rest of India. In fact, the MoS for external affairs was none other than Omar Abdullah. Omar Abdullah is the MoS who made statements about Pakistan sponsoring cross-border terrorism, which were shown earlier in this article.

On 15th November 2001, he raised concerns over the ‘Talibanisation’ of Kashmir:

We have not seen Taliban as such, but what you have seen is Talibanisation of Kashmir through some of these groups particularly with regard to women wearing burkhas and other stuff. Some of these militant groups that have come particularly the guys from Pakistan and Afghanistan had real difficulty in adjusting to the more tolerant Sufi Culture of Islam that we have in Jammu and Kashmir and they have tried to Talibanise the place. But aside from that we have seen groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir that have direct and credible links to Al-Qaida, ...[Jaish]-e- Mohammad and others for example. So even if the Taliban hasn't had been directly involved its off shoot [sic] have had a presence there.

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While he was in jail, it is likely that Kashmiris would have become more 'Talibanised'. After the abrogation of article 35A, many Kashmiri Muslims will feel they have lost their identity. This will make matters worse for the Kashmiri Pandits. Before 1989, both the Muslims and the Pundits (Hindus) used to live together. The Pundits have been driven out. Now, if Muslims move towards Taliban, there will be no hope of them making peace with the Pundits.

National Conference had won all 3 Lok Sabha seats from the Kashmir valley. Had assembly elections been held, they would have won a majority and formed the government. Now Omar Abdullah is saying that he does not want to contest elections until statehood is restored.

One of the many incidents in Kashmir post 5th August; this incident made it to the media:

On 1st July 2020, images of an incident were circulated through media. One image showed a three year old boy sitting on the body of his dead grandfather. The next image showed Kashmir zone police taking the boy away. Some members of the government were quite proud of what happened. “The officials rescued the boy,” was the sentiment. There is a certain nationalist pride in the whole operation.

However, India’s ultra-nationalist party Shiv Sena had a different view. Such pictures were ‘doing no good to the country’s image on a global stage.’ said their mouthpiece Saamana.

The little boy did not run away but was trying to wake up his grandfather. Some central ministers tweeted the picture on their Twitter handle... These ministers should understand that this picture can prove to be the central government's failure. Onus of this situation in the valley lies on the government...A child who doesn't know his grandfather is dead is trying to wake him up. Such pictures have come to the fore only in countries like Syria, Egypt, Somalia and Afghanistan and are doing no good to the country’s image on a global stage.

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They further stated that it was 'status quo despite scrapping of Article 370.' " There is blood on the streets every day and there is loss of innocent lives", they said.

What next...

The amount of terrorism is the same as it was between 2011 and 2014. However, there are many other complications now. Even Delhi and Puducherry have problems not having full statehood. Andhra Pradesh still has problems of the bifurcation. The government has created similar problems in Jammu & Kashmir in addition to abrogation of Article 370.

There is a constant lockdown and military presence in Kashmir. It remains to be seen how long this will last, and how the people will respond.